黄河流域水-能源-粮食安全系统的耦合协调发展研究

为探究黄河流域水-能源-粮食安全系统协调发展对推动流域人地关系协调、高质量发展的意义,以黄河流域水-能源-粮食安全系统为核心,构建流域水-能源-粮食安全系统综合指数,采用主成分分析法计算各指标权重,利用耦合协调度模型对2007—2017年黄河流域水-能源-粮食安全系统耦合协调度进行测算,并对2018—2027年流域耦合协调度进行预测。结果表明:黄河流域水-能源-粮食安全系统综合指数处于中等水平;流域2007—2017年水-能源-粮食安全系统耦合协调度经历初级和中级耦合协调发展水平,整体呈上升趋势,发展潜力较大;黄河流域水、能源安全子系统综合指数呈现轻微负增长态势,对系统整体发展提升存在一定负向压力;预测结果显示流域耦合协调度在预测期内仍将保持在中级协调。提高黄河流域水-能源-粮食安全系统协调性,推动黄河流域高质量发展,必须统筹考虑水、能源、粮食之间的协调关系,从根本上加强流域资源与生态的综合高效管理。

Study on coupling and coordinated development of water-energy-food security system in the Yellow River Basin

In order to explore the significance of the coordinated development of water-energy-food security system in the Yellow River Basin to promote the coordination of human-land relationship and high-quality development, a comprehensive index of water-energy-food security system in the Yellow River Basin was constructed with the water-energy-food security system as the core. The weight of each index was calculated by principal component analysis. The coupling coordination degree model was used to measure the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food security system in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2017, and to predict the coupling coordination degree of the Yellow River Basin from 2018 to 2027. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of water-energy-food security system in the Yellow River Basin is in the middle level. From 2007 to 2017, the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food security system in the basin experienced the primary and intermediate coupling and coordinated development level, showing an overall upward trend, with great development potential. The comprehensive index of water and energy security subsystem in the Yellow River Basin shows a slight negative growth trend, which has a certain negative pressure on the overall development of the system. The prediction results show that the coupling coordination degree of the basin will remain at the intermediate level of coordination during the prediction period. To improve the coordination of water-energy-food security system in the Yellow River Basin and promote the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, it is necessary to consider the coordination among water, energy and food, and fundamentally strengthen the comprehensive and efficient management of resources and ecology in the basin.