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基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的农田灌溉需水量预测
引用本文:申富生.基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的农田灌溉需水量预测[J].水资源保护,2007,23(3):33-35.
作者姓名:申富生
作者单位:长治市水文水资源勘测分局,山西,长治,046011
摘    要:介绍灰色理论建模原理和模型参数辨识方法,并以实例(长治市1997~2004年灌溉用水资料)建立了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,运用残差检验、后验差检验以及关联度检验3种方法对模型进行了精度检验,其模型的拟合精度达95.3%。用所建立的模型对长治市2005~2012年农灌需水量进行了外推预测。预测结果表明,该灰色模型用于农灌需水量预测,符合其灰色特性,通用性好,并且所需数据少,计算量适中,预测结果与当地实际情况比较吻合。

关 键 词:灰色GM(1  1)模型  精度检验  农田灌溉  需水量
文章编号:1004-6933(2007)03-0033-03
收稿时间:2006-11-24
修稿时间:2006-11-24

Prediction of farmland irrigation water demand by grey GM (1, 1) model
SHEN Fu-sheng.Prediction of farmland irrigation water demand by grey GM (1, 1) model[J].Water Resources Protection,2007,23(3):33-35.
Authors:SHEN Fu-sheng
Affiliation:Changzhi Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey, Changzhi 046011, China
Abstract:The modeling principle of grey theory and the recognition method of model parameter were presented.Taking Changzhi City as a case,a grey GM(1,1) model was established based on the data of irrigation water from 1997 to 2004.The precision test of residual error examination,posterior difference examination and relative degree examination showed that the fitting precision reached 95.3%.The model was applied to the prediction of irrigation water demand in Changzhi City from 2005 to 2012.The result indicates that this grey model used in the agricultural irrigation demand prediction conforms to its grey characteristic.The model has the advantages of good versatility,few requirements of data,and moderate computation quantity,and the result accords with the practical condition.
Keywords:grey GM(1  1) model  precision test  farmland irrigation  water demand
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