大流域洪水预报与洪水调度管理方法研究

采用水文学与水力学、确定与随机相结合的方法，研究大流域洪水预报与洪水调度管理。确定性模型采用降雨～径流模型的新安江模型和经验预报方案进行流域流量过程预报，一维非恒定流水力学方法进行河道流量与水位以及蓄滞洪预报。随机模型采用线性动态模型进行下断面水位实时预报，最小二乘递推模型进行误差实时校正。以长江支流修水流域为例，采用新安江模型、经验方案进行万家埠与柘林水库入库洪水预报作为水力学计算的上边界条件，采用一维非恒定流水力学方法进行河道洪水流量、水位计算以及分洪计算。该方法为流域的防洪减灾提供了科学的途径。

Flood forecasting and flood management of large watershed

The method of combination of hydrological with hydraulic methods and deterministic method with stochastic method is used in the flood forecasting and flood management of large watershed. The Xin'anjiang model and empirical method are used as rainfall-runoff models. One dimension of unsteady flow is studied in the forecast of the discharge and water stage and simulation of flood detention. The stochastic-linear dynamic method is used to forecast the water stage of Wuchang and as the real-time correction method. Taking Xiu River as example, the calculation results showed that, the combination method provides a scientific way for the flood forecasting and flood management of large watershed.