河道洪水概率预报方法研究

河道洪水预报对防洪减灾和水资源的综合利用有着重要的现实意义。考虑到水文预报不确定性的水文风险,为了更科学地对河道洪水进行预测,提出将贝叶斯方法的思路引入到河道洪水的概率预报中,计算预报流量的概率密度分布和置信区间,获得河道洪水的概率预报结果,为防洪决策提供更丰富的信息。

The Research of River Flood Probabilistic Forecasting

River flood forecasting is very important for the reduction of disasters and the synthesis use of water resource. This paper considers the uncertainty of the hydrology forecasting,the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting and the BP ANN are combined for forecasting the river flood.The method is applied to Qingjiang River.The probability density distribu- tion of discharge to be estimated,the result show that the flood probabilistic forecasting model provides more powerful in- formation for flood management.