短期降雨预报在汛限水位动态控制中的应用

以丹江口水库为例，根据考虑降雨预报的水库汛期限制水位控制的新理念，研究了利用短期降雨预报信息进行水库汛限水位动态控制的调度方式；同时分析了在发生降雨预报误差时，汛限水位动态控制的风险率以及大坝所能抗御洪水标准的变化，概化计算了抬高汛限水位增加的发电效益。结果表明，在不增加丹江口水库及其上下游防护对象风险的前提下，抬高汛限水位可以为丹江口水库带来较大的经济效益。

Dynamic control of reservoir normal level in flood season based on short-term rainfall forecast

Danjiangkou Reservoir is taken as an example to give an application for the new idea of controlling reservoir normal level in flood season RNLFS dynamically based on rainfall forecast. First the accuracy analysis of rainfall forecast for Danjiangkou Reservoir basin and its three regions is given so that the rainfall forecasts for 24-hour and 48-hour can be used in more safety way. Then the flood operation method controlling RNLFS dynamically is put forward in terms of short-term rainfall forecasting information. At last the risks from rainfall forecast errors and benefits from controlling RNLFS dynamically are analyzed. It is shown that no risks are added when 24-hour rainfall forecasts are used and much more hydropower can be generated than before.