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软基沉降预测模型的比较分析与应用
引用本文:汪洋,余湘娟,姜健.软基沉降预测模型的比较分析与应用[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2012,10(4):127-130.
作者姓名:汪洋  余湘娟  姜健
作者单位:河海大学岩土力学与堤坝工程教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210098 河海大学岩土工程研究所,江苏南京210098
摘    要:公路软基沉降预测是目前高速发展的软土地区公路建设中亟待解决的一大技术难题,预测模型也有多种,预测精度不尽相同。对工程中基于经验公式法预测沉降的传统模型(指数模型、双曲线模型)和成长曲线模型(Logistic模型、Gompertz模型、Weibull模型)给予介绍,并分别对各模型进行了数学比较分析。结果表明:传统模型不能利用施工期间的观测数据,只能用工后资料预测工后沉降,且对工后资料的要求较高;成长曲线模型能较好的反映沉降全过程的变化规律。Weibull模型较其它两种成长模型有较广泛的适应性,其对沉降的预测与实际吻合较好。

关 键 词:软基  沉降预测  指数模型  双曲线模型  Logistic模型  Gompertz模型  Weibull模型

Comparative Analysis and Application for Settlement Prediction Models in Soft Foundation
WANG Yang,YU Xiang-juan,JIANG Jian.Comparative Analysis and Application for Settlement Prediction Models in Soft Foundation[J].Journal of Water Resources Architectural Engineering,2012,10(4):127-130.
Authors:WANG Yang  YU Xiang-juan  JIANG Jian
Affiliation:1,2(1.Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering of Ministry of Education,Hohai University,Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098,China;2.Institute of Geotechnical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210098,China)
Abstract:The highway subsidence prediction in soft soil areas is a technical problem which needs to be solved urgently with the high-speed development of highway construction.There are a variety of prediction models and the results are not the same.Here,the traditional models(index model,hyperbolic model) and the growth curve models(Logistic model,Gompertz model,Weibull model) based on empirical formula method for settlement pridiction are introduced and analyzed.The results show that the traditional model could only use the data after constrction other than the data during constrction,and would require the hight quality data.While the growth curve model could completely reflect the settlement law of whole process,and Weibull model has a wide adaptability than the other two growth models and has good agreement between the calculating results from weibull model and field measuring data.
Keywords:soft foundation  settlement prediction  index model  hyperbolic model  Logistic model  Gompertz model  Weibull model
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