基于层次分析法和模糊理论水库大坝安全综合评价

影响水库大坝安全的因素众多,并且具有不确定性和层次性的特点。基于《水库大坝安全评价导则》(SL 258—2000)对水库大坝的安全性进行了三级划分,将传统的方法和与层次分析法和模糊理论进行结合,构建目标综合评价体系。采用层次分析法确定了权重向量,并且简化了判断矩阵一致性检验的过程。在确定模糊评价矩阵各因素的隶属度的过程中,借鉴地铁施工、TBM施工中的方法,针对定性因子采用逐级估量法和专家评分法进行隶属度的确定;针对定量因子采用岭型隶属度分布函数。最后,对水库大坝的安全性进行综合评价。

Safety Evaluation of Reservoir Dam Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Theory

There are many factors affecting the safety of reservoir dams which belong to different categories and show many uncertainties .According to guidelines of dam safety evaluation ,the safety evaluation of reservoir dams can be di-vided into three levels .In this paper the conventional method is combined with analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy theory to develop the target comprehensive evaluated system by using analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight vectors , which can simplify the process of judging the consistency test .In determining the membership degree of each factors ,this paper borrowed ideas from subway construction and TBM construction .The membership of qualitative factors are then de-termined by successive estimation and expert scoring method .The ridge membership distribution is used for quantitative factors .Finally the security of reservoir dam is comprehensively evaluated .