洪灾风险评价体系研究

洪灾风险评价是进行御洪管理、防灾减灾的基础。针对国内外洪灾风险评价缺少系统规范体系现状．在洪灾生命损失评价、经济损失评价的基础上，构建起以洪灾损失为核心的动态实用性洪灾风险评价体系。给出耦合致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体的洪灾风险定义，探讨了基于洪水分析、易损性分析、损失分析的洪灾风险评价流程图。针对洪灾风险评价不确定性，从被动破坏损失、主动防御减灾角度提出系统量化的洪灾损失经济评价指标，结合研究体系应用实际，给出洪灾风险评价体系的选一步完善策略。

Studies on flood risk evaluation system

Flood risk evaluation is the foundation of flood prevention and management. With the consideration of current flood risk evaluation lacking the systematic methodology, a dynamic and practical flood risk evaluation system are established with the flood losses as the key element. The system is based on the life losses evaluation and economic losses evaluation. Definitions of Coupled Hazard Inducing Factors and Hazard Inducing Environmental as well as hazard-bearing body are given. Process map of flood risk evaluation based on examination of flood, vulnerability and losses is discussed. Based on the uncertainty of flood risk, a quantitative economic losses evaluation index is proposed from the angle of passive damage losses and both active prevention and reduction, Comments on further improving the flood risk evaluation system are presented.