基于事故树法的土坝综合风险计算模型研究

事故树法是工程风险评估中重要分析方法之一，它能对各种系统的危险性进行辨识和评价，不仅能分析出事故的直接原因，而且能深入地揭示出事故的潜在原因；用它描述事故的因果关系直观、明了，思路清晰，逻辑性强，既可定性分析，又可定量分析。本文通过对月塘水库大坝进行实例分析，建立事故树模型，确定大坝破坏的风险失事概率，为大坝管理者提供合理的加固依据。

Study on the comprehensive risk calculation model for earth dam based on Fault tree method

Fault tree method is one of the important analysis methods in project risk assessment which can identify and as-sess risks in various system and not only finds out the direct reason,it deeply reveals the potential causes of the accident. The cause and effect can be described in an intuitive,clear,straight forward and logical way and both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis can be made. This paper establishes fault tree model for the Yuetang dam to determine the factor of risk of the dam failure so as to provide reasonable grounds of reinforcing for the managers.