近40年鄱阳湖水位变化趋势

利用实测水位资料,分析鄱阳湖水位近40年中的变化趋势,并用倾向率作定量描述。结果表明,鄱阳湖年最高水位以0.22m/10a的倾向率上升,其出现时间以3.2d/10a的倾向率推迟,大洪水年以0.06a/10a的倾向率增多,洪水位升高与大洪水增多使得洪涝灾害加剧,将成为鄱阳湖区开发整治中的突出问题。

The Varying Tendency of the Water Level of the Poyang Lake In Recent 40 Years

By use of the measured water level data, this paper analyzes the varying tendency of the water level of the Poyang Lake in recent 40 years, and describes it quantitatively with the tendency coefficient modulus. It has been shown by the report that the maximum water level is rising at rate of 0.22 m/10 year and its present time is delaying at rate of 3.2 day/10year, but the present frequence of heavy floods is increasing at rate of 0.06 year/10 year. The rise of flood water levels and the increasement of heavy floods cause heavier flood damages. It has become the most important problem during the management and development of the Poyang Lake.