模糊可变集合及其在防洪工程体系综合风险评价中的应用

基于立足全局的系统观,提出防洪工程体系综合评判的模糊可变集合方法,该方法能够科学、合理地确定与防洪工程体系相关的各个评价指标处于级别标准值区间的相对隶属函数,并根据工程模糊集理论,建立指标重要性二元比较与量化模型,从而合理地确定各个指标的权重,得出以流域为单元的防洪工程体系综合风险评价的级别特征值.实例证明本文所提方法的科学性与合理性.最后证明了可拓学(物元模型、物元分析)中基于“距”与“位值”概念为基础的关联函数基本公式的错误,指出该公式不能应用于防洪工程体系综合风险评价.

Variable fuzzy sets and their application to comprehensive risk evaluation for flood-control engineering system

From a global system view,a variable fuzzy set method was presented to develop a comprehensive evaluation model for flood-control engineering system.The method can scientifically and reasonably determine the relative membership functions of each evaluation index related to the flood-control system within different level intervals.The method can also determine the weight of each index by establishment of a two-factor quantitative comparison model for the significance of the indexes,and further obtain the characteristic value for comprehensive evaluation of risk degree for river basin flood control engineering system.Some examples were given to verify the scientificity and rationality of the present method.Moreover,the formulas for dependence functions based on the concepts of distance and displacement in extenics(matter-element analysis and matter-element model)were verified to be incorrect,and could not be used for comprehensive risk evaluation of floodcontrol engineering system.