溧阳市沙河水库东副坝溃坝生命损失估算

应用溃坝洪水软件BREACH和FLDWAV分析溧阳市沙河水库东副坝在100年一遇设计洪水位23.17 m时下游坡高程点8.40 m处管涌诱发溃坝的洪水状况,确定大致的淹没范围,计算了溃坝洪水的严重性,估算了风险人口,应用Graham法定量地估算了生命损失,重点研究了生命损失与警报时间的关系,提出了确保2 h警报时间的建议,加强非工程措施,避免生命损失。

Estimation of life loss induced by eastern auxiliary dam breach at Shahe Reservoir in Liyang City

By use of the software BREACH and FLDWAV for dam breach flood,the flood at the design water level 23.17m with 100-year recurrence interval,which led to the eastern auxiliary dam breach at the Shahe Reservoir by piping at the elevation 8.40m of the downstream slope,was analyzed.The flooding area was preliminarily determined,the damage of the dam breach flood was calculated,and the population at risk was estimated.Then,the Graham method was applied to estimation of the life loss,and the relationship between the life loss and the warning time was focused.It is suggested that the warning time should be more than 2 hours,and some non-structural measures should be taken to reduce the life loss.