投影寻踪方法在水资源承载力评价与预测中的应用

为解决区域水资源承载力综合评价中指标数据高维、非线性的问题，构建基于最大信息熵原理的投影寻踪水资源承载力评价方法，将该方法应用于2015年安徽省16个地级市水资源承载力的空间分布评价中；最后对2005—2015年安徽省全省水资源承载力进行动态评价，将该评价结果与灰色GM(1,1)模型结合，对2018—2020年安徽省区域水资源承载状况进行预测。结果表明:2015年，安徽省水资源承载空间分布状况整体表现为皖南地区优于皖中地区，皖中地区优于皖北地区；2005—2015年期间，全省水资源承载力虽基本处于临界超载状态，但年际间承载状况逐年好转。预测结果表明，2018—2020年全省水资源承载力保持良好的发展态势，总体向可载趋势发展。

Application of projection pursuit method in assessment and prediction of water resources carrying capacity

In order to solve the problem of high-dimensional and non-linearity of index data in the comprehensive assessment of regional water resources carrying capacity, the method of projection pursuit was adopted in this study for assessing water resources carrying capacity based on the principle of maximum information entropy, and this method was further applied to assess the spatial distribution in 16 cities of Anhui Province in 2015, and finally the dynamic assessment of Anhui Province from 2005 to 2015 was carried out. The assessment results were combined with the GM (1,1) model to predict the regional water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province from 2018 to 2020. The results show that in terms of the overall spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity in 2015, the water resources carrying capacity in southern Anhui was better than that in central Anhui, which was further better than that in northern Anhui. The water resources carrying capacity of the province was basically at a critical point of overload from 2005 to 2015. But the inter-annual carrying capacity was improved year by year. The forecast results show that the water resources carrying capacity of the province maintains a good development momentum from 2018 to 2020, and the overall development trend is toward the excellent capability of loading.