流域数学模拟系统发展方向及关键技术

重点介绍了黑河流域综合模型、数字流域模型、二元演化模拟系统以及黄河数学模拟系统等4个流域模拟系统的新进展;从发展理念、生产方式、质量评测、集成建模以及支撑途径等5个方面,凝练了系统模拟系统发展新态势,突出水-经济-生态过程的耦合模拟,注重构件化组装的集约化生产方式,突出模型科学评价和公共开发环境建设,重视多源数据同化和模型参数化.今后一个时期,要重点做好数学模型不确定性及评价技术、数学模型复杂数据高效存取及其仿真可视化、协调大尺度和跨学科模型集成及云服务技术、三维/四维变分同化技术、基于物联网的混合虚拟河流试验技术、水循环及其多物质输移过程和模拟技术等方面研究工作.

Development of numerical modeling system for river basins and critical techniques

This paper introduces the state-of-the-art developments of the integrated model for the Heihe River Basin,the digital river basin model,the human-nature evolution modeling system and the Yellow River numerical modeling system in terms of developing philosophy,mode,quality control,model integration and support system.The systems are used mainly for coupled modeling of water-economic-ecological processes,and are made by integrating of modules in an intensive production manner.Efforts in their development focus on both scientific evaluation of the models involved and construction of environmental facilities suitable for and open to further public developments.Techniques such as multi-sourced data assimilation and parameterization are applied in the systems.Besides,the paper shows such technical problems needing to be addressed in the future as modeling uncertainty,model evaluation,high efficient save of,access to,and visualization of complex data,model integration for cloud computation of the large-scaled processes of multi-disciplinary variables,3D/4D variational data assimilation,experimentation based on interactive digital and physical models for rivers,water cycling,transport of multiple agents and modeling techniques.