我国水库大坝风险评价与决策研究

对水库大坝风险进行了分类和分区,分析了成文法和不成文法两类不同法律体系下的风险标准特点,提出将我国大坝风险分为可接受风险、可容忍风险、不可接受风险和极高风险4个区域。在基于风险评价一般原则基础上,分析了ALARP原则在不成文法国家及我国的内涵,阐述了成本效益法和失衡法在ALARP原则中的作用及使用方法,提出了水库大坝风险决策原则,为我国水库大坝风险标准的制定提供了理论依据。

Dam risk evaluation and decision-making research of China

The classification and subregion of reservoir dam risk degree have been given in the study. By analyzing the features of the risk criteria in the civil code of law and the common law systems， it is suggested that the domestic dam risks can be classified into four regions: acceptable risk， tolerable risk， unacceptable risk and extremely high risk. Based on general principles of the risk evaluation， the implications of ALARP principle both in the countries with the common law and in our country are analyzed， and effects and applications of cost effectiveness method and disproportionality ratio method in ALARP principle are stated in this paper. Finally， the principles of dam risk decision-making are establised on a scientific analysis base， which will provide a sound theoretical basis for further research on dam risk and the formulation of dam risk criteria in China.