气候变化对汾河(运城段）径流影响模拟

将分布式水文模型——SWAT模型应用于汾河（运城段）的径流模拟，以期为流域水资源管理、优化配置提供科学依据。首先，分析模型对研究区域的适用性，并在现有资料基础上对流域径流进行模拟研究，从时间、空间两个方面共同诠释了流域内径流与降水的关系；其次，根据流域未来气候可能变化，由增量情景法设定了不同气候情景，模拟未来气候情景下径流的变化趋势以及径流量的年内变化特征。结果表明:①研究区域内径流在时空分布上均与降水量分布吻合；②研究区域内径流量变化与气温变化呈负相关关系，与降水量变化呈正相关关系，且降水量变化对研究区域径流量产生的影响比温度变化产生的影响大；③径流量的年内分布呈季节性特点，汛期（7—10月份）最大，枯水期（11月至翌年3月份）最小；④未来气候变化趋势下，研究区域径流量将呈相应增加趋势，在气温升高0.5℃和降水量增加10%的情景下，河津水文站的径流量将增加1.29 亿m3。

Simulation of climate change impacts on runoff of Yuncheng reach of Fenhe River

In order to provide a scientific and reliable basis for water management and optimization, a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) was applied to the runoff simulation of the Yuncheng reach of the Fenhe River. Firstly, based on the available data, the relationships between runoff and precipitation were explained from both time and space by simulating the runoff of the study area. Secondly, by use of the method of incremental scenario, different climate scenarios were assumed according to the possible changes of the future climate. Then, the SWAT model was used to simulate the runoff under different climate scenarios of the study area. The analysis results show: (1)the runoff distribution was consistent with the precipitation in both time and space; (2) there was a negative correlation between the annual runoff and temperature, and a positive correlation between the annual runoff and precipitation. Compared with the temperature changes, the precipitation changes played a more important role in the runoff of the study area; (3) the runoff changes of the study area showed a tendency of seasonal variation. The runoff variation reached the maximum in the flood season (from July to October) and the minimum in the dry season (from November to March); (4) the runoff of the survey area will increase with the future climate change. The runoff of the Hejin hydrological station will increase by 129 million m3 when the temperature increases by 0.5℃ and precipitation increases by 10%.