1961-2011年深圳市降水变化趋势分析

基于深圳市雨量站1961-2011年逐日降水资料,利用Mann-Kendall法对深圳市年降水量、降水日数、降水强度、汛期降水量和非汛期降水量作趋势分析,并采用有序聚类法对年降水量和降水强度进行突变检验,采用小波分析法对年降水量和降水强度进行周期分析。结果表明:年降水量、降水日数、降水强度、汛期降水量和非汛期降水量均为增加的趋势,其中降水日数增加显著;年降水量在1963年和2008年均发生了突变,而降水强度突变时间发生在1993年;年降水量和降水强度周期变化基本一致,存在6a和11a左右的震荡周期,且1990年后两者的周期变化更为明显。深圳市降水趋势的变化与该地区的城市高速发展有关,准确认识深圳市降水趋势对该地区的城市发展意义重大。

Variation trends of precipitation in Shenzhen from 1961 to 2011

Based on the daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2011 in Shenzhen City, the precipitation trends in Shenzhen were investigated by performing the Mann-Kendall (MK) tests on the annual precipitation, precipitation days, precipitation intensity, flood season precipitation and non-flood season precipitation. The annual precipitation and precipitation intensity were tested on mutation by sequential cluster method and analyzed on period by wavelet method. The results indicate that the annual precipitation, precipitation days, precipitation intensity, precipitation in the flood season and non-flood season precipitation are increasing, and the precipitation days increase significantly. The mutation of the annual precipitation occurred in 1963 and 2008, and 1993 witnessed the mutation of the precipitation intensity. There are 6 years and 11 years oscillating periods in both the annual precipitation and precipitation intensity, and the periodic mutation become more obvious after 1990. These variation trends of precipitation in Shenzhen are related to the high-speed development of this city, and it is of great significance to accurately understand the influence of Shenzhen precipitation trends on urban development in this region.