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海口市极端降雨事件演变趋势分析
引用本文:陈成豪,李彤彤,冯 杰,李龙兵,邢李桃,黄国如.海口市极端降雨事件演变趋势分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(3):6-10.
作者姓名:陈成豪  李彤彤  冯 杰  李龙兵  邢李桃  黄国如
作者单位:(1.海南省水文水资源勘测局, 海南 海口 510203; 2.华南理工大学 a.土木与交通学院; b.亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室, 广东 广州 510640;3.中国水利水电科学研究院 水资源研究所, 北京100038)
基金项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301093、201401048)
摘    要:城市暴雨内涝与极端降雨事件息息相关。为揭示城市暴雨内涝成因,利用海口站1953-2012年日降雨量资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和小波分析法等探讨了海口市极端降雨事件演变规律。结果表明:近60年来海口市极端降雨指标均呈现出上升趋势,但极端降雨日数上升趋势较弱,短历时暴雨强度增加,对城市内涝带来较大压力;极端降雨事件的突变年份在2007年附近,暗示海口市在2007年附近对土地的开发利用是一个节点;海口市降雨周期性不是很显著。

关 键 词:极端降雨指标    趋势分析    Mann-Kendall突变检验    小波分析    海口市

Analysis of Temporal Evolution Law of Extreme Rainstorm Events in Haikou City
CHEN Chenghao,LI Tongtong,FENG Jie,LI Longbing,XING Litao,HUANG Guoru.Analysis of Temporal Evolution Law of Extreme Rainstorm Events in Haikou City[J].Journal of water resources and water engineering,2016,27(3):6-10.
Authors:CHEN Chenghao  LI Tongtong  FENG Jie  LI Longbing  XING Litao  HUANG Guoru
Abstract:Urban storm waterlogging has close relationship with extreme rainsfall events.In order to understand the causes of urban rainstorm waterlogging, the paper used the daily rainfall data of Haikou station from 1953 to 2012, and analyzed the evolution law of extreme rainstorm events in Haikou by the method of linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall trend test, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis.The result shows that the extreme precipitation indexes of Haikou appeared a rising trend, but the number of extreme precipitation days had no obvious change in the last 60 years. So the intensity of short durative rainstorm has increased and brought greater pressure to city waterlogging.The mutation year of extreme rainfall events was around 2007, which indicated that the land development and utilization of Haikou had a node in 2007. The periodicity of rainfall was not very significant.
Keywords:extreme precipitation index  trend analysis    Mann-Kendall mutation test    wavelet analysis  Haikou
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