区域用水需求驱动因子诊断研究

用水需求增加与水资源短缺之间的矛盾使得水资源成为制约区域社会经济发展的瓶颈。在明确给定供水量的前提下,通过提高用水效率和效益,防止水质污染来满足用水需求,实现从传统的供水管理向需水管理转变的新治水思路。在需水管理视阈下以江苏省为研究对象,采用德尔菲法从生产、生活和生态用水3方面分析影响用水需求的关键指标,运用因子分析法诊断出驱动用水需求的公共因子包括农业因子、经济发展因子、人口因子和生态因子。研究结论将为区域优化用水结构、落实最严格水资源管理制度提供决策依据。

Study on diagnosis of driving factors for regional water demand

Owing to the conflict between the increased water demand and water shortage, water resources has become a bottleneck of regional social and economic development. Based on the precondition of clear water supply quantity, the water demand can be satisfied by improving the efficiency of water use, and preventing water pollution, so that the new idea of water management can be achieved though the transition from traditional water supply management to water demand management. Taking Jiangsu province as the study object on the visual angle of water demand management, this paper analyzed the key indexes that affect water demand from the three aspects of production, domestic and ecological water by Delphi method. It diagnosed by factor analysis that the common factors of water demand driving forces are the factors of agriculture, economic development, population and ecology. The research will offer the decision-making basis for the optimization of regional water structure and the implementation of the strictest water resources management system.