基于同频率地区组成法的梯级水库联合防洪预报调度

在水库实际防洪预报调度过程中,洪水的自然特性直接影响其调度风险。为降低此风险,本文提出了基于同频率地区组成法的联合防洪预报调度模型。以最大防洪库容之和最小为目标,通过调洪演算得到由m种洪水组合与n个设计频率相结合的m×n种组合方案下的联合防洪预报调度和常规调度的调度风险指标。计算结果表明联合防洪预报调度相比常规调度降低了最高坝前水位与最大下泄流量,从而降低了调度风险,进一步针对联合防洪预报调度模型,应用动态规划法求得整个调度周期内的联合泄流调度方式。

Forecast and operation of combined flood control for cascade reservoir based on composition method of same frequency region

In the process of actual operation of reservoir flood control, the operation risk is directly affected by the natural feature of flood. In order to reduce the risk,the paper proposed the forecast and operation model of combined flood control based on composition method of the same frequency region.Taking the minimum of sum of the maximum flood control capacity as target,the paper got the risk indicator of operation consist of combination of m kinds of floods and n types of design frequency of combined operation and conventional operation through flood calculation.Result showed that the combined flood control operation reduce the water level in front of the dam and the maximum discharge compared to conventional scheduling. Therefore, the new method reduced risk operation. In light of the operation model of combined flood control,the paper got combined discharge operation mode in the whole scheduling period by applying dynamic programming method.