阿克苏河径流演变及其对气候变化的响应

气候变化深刻影响着径流变化过程,是造成我国西北干旱区水资源短缺和生态环境荒漠化等问题的重要原因。以阿克苏河流域上游水文站1961-2014年的月径流资料和气象网格数据为基础数据,通过线性回归法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和Pearson相关系数法,分析了阿克苏河流域径流演变规律并进一步探讨了径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明:近54年来,阿克苏河流域径流量呈现显著的上升趋势,且研究区内气候增暖增湿趋势明显;径流量和气候要素在时间上有良好的一致性,突变时间均发生在20世纪90年代,径流量的突变时间略滞后于气温和降水量;经相关统计检验分析,阿克苏河流域出山口径流量受到了气温和降水的双重影响,托什干河径流对气温更为敏感,而库玛拉克河则是降水对径流的影响占主导作用。

Runoff variation in the Aksu River Basin and its response to climate change

Climate change has profound impacts on runoff change processes, it is the important cause of the water resources shortage and ecological environment desertification in the arid area of northwest China. Based on the monthly runoff and meteorological data at the upper reaches of the Aksu River Basin during 1961-2014, the linear regression, the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test, and the Pearson correlation coefficient methods were used to analyze the runoff evolution characteristics of Aksu River Basin and its responses to climate change. The results showed that: in recent 54 years, the runoff in the Aksu River Basin had a significant upward trend, and the climate had a warmer and more humid trend. The runoff element and climate factors had good temporal consistency, and the mutation time occurred in 1990s, the abrupt change time of runoff was slightly behind the temperature and precipitation. By the statistical correlation analysis, the exit-mountain runoff was affected by both temperature and precipitation in Aksu River Basin. The runoff of the Tuoshigan River was more sensitive to temperature, while the precipitation affected the runoff more for the Kumalake River.