| 万家寨水库汛期防洪调度风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓辉,王克彬.万家寨水库汛期防洪调度风险分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2008,19(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓辉 王克彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 海军工程大学,理学院力学系,湖北,武汉,430033
2. 长江水利委员会长江勘测规划设计研究院,湖北,武汉,430010 |
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| 摘 要： | 在对万家寨水库汛期进行分期的基础上,运用蒙特卡洛(Mento-Carlo)随机模拟法对后汛期防洪调度风险进行分析.在风险分析中,同时考虑坝体自身风险和下游防洪风险.在不同起调水位、不同下游安全泄量的条件下,对不同频率洪水的防洪风险进行计算,并计算不同汛限水位运行方案的效益.
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| 关 键 词： | 风险分析 防洪调度 汛限水位 蒙特卡洛 随机模拟 |
Risk analysis for the flood-prevention operation of Wanjiazhai Reservoir |
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| DENG Hui,WANG Ke-bin.Risk analysis for the flood-prevention operation of Wanjiazhai Reservoir[J].Journal of water resources and water engineering,2008,19(5). |
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| Authors: | DENG Hui WANG Ke-bin |
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| Affiliation: | DENG Hui1,WANG Ke-bin2 (1.Dept.of Mechanics,Haijun Eng.Univ.,Wuhan,Hubei 430033,China,2.Changjiang Institute Of Survey.Planning.Design , Research,Hubei 430010,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on dividing the flood season into stages,the risk analysis to flood prevention operation of later flood season is done through MentoCarlo stochastic simulation.In the course of risk analysis,the article considers dam body security and downstream flood control security at the same time.On the condition of different original regulating water level and different downstream safety discharge,the risk to flood prevention operation of accommodating different frequencies flood and the benefit is calculated. |
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| Keywords: | risk analysis flood-prevention operation limited water level in flood season Mento Carlo method stochastic simulation |
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