降水变化及人类活动对金钱河流域径流的影响

以秦岭南麓的金钱河流域为典型研究区,利用Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验方法、回归分析法、双累积曲线法等数理统计方法,分析金钱河流域径流和降水的年际变化特征,建立了降水年内变化参数的流域降水与径流关系模型;并基于水文模型的方法定量评估降水变化及人类活动对金钱河流域径流变化的影响。结果表明:金钱河流域的降水、径流变化呈现一致性;径流系数呈下降趋势;金钱河流域降水和径流突变点发生在1988-1989年左右;通过降水-径流关系模型计算,由人类活动引起径流减少的比率为51.67%,较高于降水变化的比率48.33%,是导致径流变化的主要原因。

Impact of precipitation change and human activity on runoff in Jinqian river basin

Taking the Jinqian river basin in the southern regions of Qinling mountains as typical area,the paper used the methods of the Mann-Kendall statistical method, regression analysis and double mass curve techniques to analyze the yearly variation characteristics of runoff and precipitation in the basin. In view of the rainfall yearly change, the relational model of rainfall and runoff is developed;Based on the precipitation-runoff empirical statistical model,it quantitatively assessed the impacts of precipitation change and human activities on runoff in the Jinqian river basin.The results indicate that the variation of runoff and precipitation in the Jinqian river basin are closely associated;the runoff coefficient presents a falling trend. In addition, an abrupt change point of precipitation and runoff took place in the period of 1988 to 1989;throigh the calculation by the model of precipitation and runoff relation,it got the result that both precipitation change and human activities have significant impacts on runoff in the Jinqian river. The decrease of runoff of Jinqian River mainly results from to human activities which account to 51.67%, while the rate of precipitation change accounts to 48.33%.