近30年甘肃省潜在蒸散发时空变化特征及演变归因的定量分析

蒸散发是地球系统水量平衡和能量平衡中的重要组成部分,研究潜在蒸散发的变化对于更好地理解气候变化对水文循环的影响及水资源配置具有重要意义。本文基于FAO推荐并修订的Penman-Monteith模型,利用1981-2010年甘肃省内及周边的32个气象站点的常规观测资料对甘肃近30年内潜在蒸散发的时空变化特征进行研究,并对潜在蒸散发对气象因子的敏感性及其敏感系数的空间分布进行分析,定量揭示了影响甘肃潜在蒸散发变化的主导因素。结果可为研究甘肃气候变化对水循环的影响、提高农业灌溉效率和调整水资源利用结构及优化配置水资源提供参考。

Quantitative analysis of causes for temporal and spatial variation characteristics and evolution of potential evapotranspiration in Gansu Province during recent 30 years

Evapotranspiration is an important part in the water and energy balance of earth's system.The research on the variation of potential evapotranspiration (ET_p) is of great significance for a better understanding of the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle and water resources allocation. Based on Penman-Monteith model recommended and revised by FAO,by use of meteorological data collected from 32 meteorological stations in or around Gansu,the paper analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in recent 30 years. Moreover,it analyzed the sensitivity of meteorological factors to potential evapotranspiration and the spatial distribution of sensitive coefficient,and quantitatively reveal the dominant factor of ET_p's variation.The result can provide reference for studying the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle,improve agricultural irrigation efficiency,adjust utilization structure of water resources and optimizing the allocation of water resources in Gansu Province.