叶尔羌河冰湖溃坝洪水早期预警系统参数的确定方法

近10a叶尔羌河下游洪泛区社会系统风险在上升,因此在叶尔羌河上建立了EWS。从叶尔羌河EWS自动地面监测站预警过程来看EWS是一种能有效地降低冰湖溃坝洪水灾害风险的措施。文中结合叶尔羌河历史洪水资料和调查的洪水引起的下游洪泛区的经济损失提出了一种确定EWS预警参数的方法,具有一定的精度。同时针对当前叶尔羌河下游洪泛区社会系统的脆弱性,确定出合理的预警参数。

Method of parameter determination for early warning system (EWS) of outburst flood in glacial lake of Yarkant River

The social systems risk flood plain in downstream of Yarkant River has increased in recent years,so EWS was set up on the Yarkant river. From the warning process of EWS automatic monitoring stations on Yarkant River, EWS is an effective measure to reduce the risk of glacial lake outburst floods. Combined historical data and economic losses resulted from flood,the proposed a method to determine the warning parameters of EWS.The method has certain accuracy. However ,the current vulnerability of social system in Yarkant River flood plain must also be taken into account so as to determine reasonable warning parameters.