博斯腾湖流域归一化植被指数变化及其对气候变化的响应

利用2003-2012年MODIS-NDVI数据,结合23个气象站同期气温和降水数据,分析10年间博斯腾湖流域NDVI变化趋势及其对气温和降水变化的响应机制。结果表明:10年间,博斯腾湖流域NDVI呈波浪式上升态势,NDVI显著增加和极显著增加区主要分布在巴音布鲁克草原和博斯腾湖附近的核心绿洲区,NDVI变化不显著区占研究区总面积的87.35%;近10年博斯腾湖流域的降水和气温都呈下降趋势,气温增温率自流域西北部向东南部递增,增温中心位于库尔勒和焉耆附近的核心绿洲区,降水倾向率自流域西北部向东南部递减,研究区中部降水减少最明显;年际水平上,10年间博斯腾湖流域NDVI总体与气温呈负相关,与降水量呈正相关。与降水量极显著正相关的区域主要分布在巴伦台和巴音布鲁克附近,月际水平上,4-10月博斯腾湖流域NDVI与同时期降水和气温呈现很强的正相关,滞后现象不明显。

Changes of NDVI and its response to climate change in Boston Lake Basin

Based on the MODIS-NDVI data from 2003 to 2012, combined with the temperature and precipitation data of 23 weather stations, the NDVI change trend of the Boston Lake basin in 10 years and its response to temperature and precipitation were analyzed. The results showed that: During the past 10 years, the NDVI of Boston Lake basin showed a wavy rising tendency. The NDVI of the core oasis around Bayanbulak Grassland and Boston Lake increased significantly, while the NDVI of 87.35% areas in Boston Lake basin did not change significantly. In the past 10 years, the precipitation and temperature of the Boston Lake decreased. The temperature increase rate is increasing from the northwest of the basin to the southeastern part. The warming center is located in the core oasis area near Korla and Yanqi. The precipitation rate decreases from the northwest to the southwest. And the precipitation in the middle of the study area is the most obvious. On the inter-annual level, the NDVI in the Boston Lake basin was negatively correlated with the temperature in 10 years, and positively correlated with the precipitation. Areas that are significantly positively correlated with precipitation mainly distributed near the Baluntai Terrace and Bayanbulak. On the month level, the NDVI of the Boston Lake basin in April to October showed a strong positive correlation with the precipitation and temperature at the same time, and the lag phenomenon was not obvious.