基于DPSIR-TOPSIS及耦合协调度的安徽水资源承载力的时空变化

为加快产业承接步伐，将安徽打造成长三角高质量承接产业转移的优选地，保障安徽省水资源的可持续开发利用十分重要。本研究依据安徽省2010—2020年的相关数据指标，结合安徽省实际发展状况，基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型选取22个评价指标构建评价体系，通过障碍度模型分析影响安徽省水资源承载力的主要因素及障碍度。采用空间自相关法分析安徽省各市水资源承载力的关联程度，采用耦合协调度模型分析各子系统间的耦合协调度。结果表明：安徽省水资源承载力指数从0.326 9上升至0.728 6，呈向好趋势；影响水资源承载力的主要子系统为压力系统和影响系统，影响因子主要是自然保护区面积、工业废水排放量、工业SO₂排放量，障碍度分别占比14.80%、10.61%、8.68%；安徽省耦合协调度较为稳定，处于濒临失调状态；安徽省各市水资源承载能力整体向好，但内部空间差异较明显。加强安徽省水资源承载力的关键在于提高生态环境治理水平，研究结果可为安徽省未来水资源配置和高效利用提供科学依据。

Spatio-temporal variation of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model and coupling coordination

In order to speed up the pace of industrial undertaking, forge Anhui Province into a preferred place for high-quality industrial transfer in the Yangtze River Delta, great attention should be paid to the sustainable development and utilization of water resources. This study selected 22 evaluation indicators based on the DPSIR-TOPSIS model to construct an evaluation system according to the relevant data from 2010 to 2020 and the actual development situation of Anhui Province. The main factors and obstacles affecting the carrying capacity of water resources in Anhui Province were analyzed by the obstacle model, the correlation degree of water resources carrying capacity of various cities by the spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the coupling coordination degree between subsystems by the coupling coordination model. The results show that the carrying capacity index of water resources in Anhui Province increased from 0.326 9 to 0.728 6, showing a benign trend; the main subsystems affecting the carrying capacity of water resources were pressure subsystem and impact subsystem, and the main impact factors were the area of nature reserve, industrial wastewater discharge and industrial SO₂ discharge, which individual obstacle degrees accounted for 14.80%, 10.61% and 8.68%, respectively. The coupling coordination degree in Anhui Province was relatively stable but on the verge of imbalance. The carrying capacity of water resources in various cities in Anhui Province was generally good, but the internal spatial difference was significant. The key to strengthening the carrying capacity of water resources in Anhui Province lies in improving the level of ecological environment governance, and the research results can provide a scientific basis for the future allocation and efficient utilization of water resources in Anhui Province.