基于SD和GM(1,1)模型的西安市污水回用方案研究

以系统动力学原理为基础,利用系统动力学软件(Vensim)构建了西安市污水回用系统动力学模型(SD模型),并结合灰色GM(1,1)模型对市区人口、GDP、城市工业总产值等主要变量进行模拟分析,对不同污水回用发展方案进行了模拟分析预测.结果表明:保证在2020年污水二级处理率达到90％,再生回用率达到45％的发展方案能有效缓解城市缺水状况,逐步改善城市水环境,实现经济与环境的协调发展.

Study on scheme of sewage reuse in Xi'an based on SD and GM (1,1) model

Based on the theory of system dynamics, the paper used system dynamics software (Vensim) to construct system dynamics model (SD model) for sewage reuse of Xi'an, and selected the main variable factors such as population, GDP, gross industrial output value etc. for simulation analysis combined with GM (1,1) model, made the simulation analysis prediction of sewage reuse with different development schemes. The result shows that guarantee in 2020the sewage secondary treatments rate of development plan will reach 90%, recycle and reuse rate reach 45% so as to alleviate the urban water shortage effectively, improve the urban water environment gradually, and achieve a coordinated development of economy and environment.