乌江流域上下游径流丰枯遭遇分析

乌江流域上游代表站-洪家渡站和下游代表站-构皮滩站年径流的丰枯遭遇情况可为流域梯级水库中长期合理调度提供依据.采用Copula函数构建了洪家渡站和构皮滩站联合概率分布模型,并对其丰枯同步和异步频率进行了分析.结果表明:洪家渡与构皮滩两站丰枯同步频率大于丰枯异步频率.丰枯同步频率中,同丰的频率略大于同枯的频率,同平的频率最小.Copula函数可以有效地分析乌江上下游的丰枯遭遇问题,可为流域规划管理提供依据.

Analysis of runoff encounter of upstream and downstream in Wujiang river

The paper studied the annual runoff wetness-dryness encountering of Hongjiadu which was the upper reaches of Wujiang River representative station and Goupitan which was the downstream of representatives station for providing the basis of cascade reservoir schedule. It used the copula function to construct the model of Joint probability distribution between Hongjiadu and Goupitan for the analysis of frequency of the synchronous and asynchronous of the runoff wetness-dryness. The results show that the frequency of synchronism was greater than that of asynchronous. The abundance of the same frequency is slightly larger than the dry frequency, with the frequency of wetness-dryness minimum. The Copula function can effectively analyze the runoff encountering problems of the upstream and downstream in Wujiang river and provide reference for the plan and management of river basin.