资源性缺水地区流域水环境承载力评价模型及其应用

在深入探讨水环境承载力理论体系的基础上,构建了基于水环境容量和生态环境需水量的水环境承载力评价预测模型,形成了适用于我国西北干旱区资源性缺水地区的水环境承载力研究体系。以陕西渭河段为例,通过建立河流水环境容量模型、生态需水量模型,应用系统动力学法并结合层次分析法模拟了流域水环境系统的动态变化,并且预测了2010-2020年不同方案下的水环境承载能力。结果表明:将开源、节流、治污等结合的综合方案可有效提高渭河流域水环境承载能力,所建模型对西北干旱区水环境承载力评价具有很好的适用性。

Evaluation model and application of water environmental carrying capacity in basins short of water resources

The article constructed the prediction and evaluation model of water environment carrying capacity of water environment capacity and ecological environment water demand based on the profound research of water environment carrying capacity systems, and formed a set of mature water environment carrying capacity research systems which is suitable for the arid area of northwest China short of water resources. Taking Weihe River in Shaanxi as an example, this paper applied system dynamics combined with analytic hierarchy process to simulate the dynamic changes of river water environmental system through the establishment of river water environmental capacity model and ecological water demand model, and forecasted the water environmental carrying capacity for different schemes from 2010 to 2020. The results showed the integrated scheme of open-source, throttle and pollution control can effectively improve the water environment carrying capacity in Weihe River basin.The constructed model has good applicability to the evaluation of water environment carrying capacity in northwest arid areas.