水资源安全综合评价与预测——基于浙江省台州市实证分析

水安全关乎一个城市社会、经济各方面的协调发展。以台州市为例,采用"压力-状态-响应(PSR)"模式建立水安全评价指标体系,通过层次分析法(AHP)获得各指标的权重,以"边际效益递减"原理求得各指标的子安全度,结合综合指数法对台州市2011-2015年水安全状况进行综合评价。结果表明:台州市该阶段的水安全情况处于基本安全状态,化学需氧量、河流污染百分比、年降雨量、城市用水重复率是台州市水安全状况的主要影响因子。以灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对台州市水安全情况进行预测,预测结果显示:台州市2016-2020的水安全状态仍处于基本安全状态,且呈逐年上升向安全状态转化的趋势。

Comprehensive evaluation and prediction of water security: An empirical analysis based on Taizhou city of Zhejiang Province

Water security is related to the coordinated development of all aspects of urban society and economy. Taking Taizhou city as an example, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of water security by using PSR model. The index weights was obtained by the analytic hierarchy process and the safety degree of each index was acquired based on the principle of diminishing marginal benefit, and the comprehensive index method was used to evaluate the water security of Taizhou city from 2011 to 2015.The results show that the water security situation is in a safe state, and chemical oxygen demand, annual rainfall, river pollution percentage, and urban water reuse rate are the main influencing factors of water security. We also predicted the future water security of Taizhou city by using the Grey Prediction GM (1,1) model. The forecasting results show that the water security status of Taizhou from 2015 to 2020 is still in a basic safety state, and the trend is increasing year by year to the full safety state.