基于GRA-TOPSIS法云南省水资源承载力评价及障碍因子诊断

云南省水资源时空分布不均，供需矛盾日益突出。定量评价云南省水资源承载力，诊断障碍因子，可为云南省合理开发利用水资源提供理论依据。从水资源、生态环境、经济社会3个子系统中选取了21个指标构建评价指标体系，运用GRA-TOPSIS法和障碍度模型测算云南省2005-2018年的水资源承载力，诊断主要障碍因子。结果表明： 2005-2018年云南省水资源承载力呈上升趋势，综合指数由0.468 4增大到0.612 3，增幅为30.72%。不同子系统的趋势变化和增长幅度差异较大，水资源和生态环境在2010-2011年出现承载力指数大幅减小的情况；2005-2018年云南省水资源承载力的主要障碍因子为其他水源供水占比、人口密度、生态用水比例、第三产业占GDP的比重、废水排放总量、废水中COD排放量、人均水资源量。云南省可通过实施优化产业结构、提高水资源利用率、深入推进生态环境保护等措施提高水资源承载力，以保障经济社会的可持续发展。

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Yunnan Province based on GRA-TOPSIS and diagnosis of its obstacle factors

Water is unevenly distributed in time and space in Yunnan Province and the discrepancy between the demand and supply is becoming more and more prominent with the fast development of economy and society. In order to provide a theoretical basis for the rational utilization of water resources in Yunnan province, the water resources carrying capacity was evaluated and its obstacle factors were diagnosed. 21 indices were selected from three subsystems of water resources, ecology and environment, economy and society to sonstruct an evaluation index system, and then the water resources carrying capacity of Yunnan Province from 2005-2018 was estimated based on grey relational analysis and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (GRA-TOPSIS), its main obstacle factors were diagnosed using obstacle degree model. The results show that the developing trend of water resources carrying capacity in Yunnan province from 2005 to 2018 was on the rise, with the composite index rising from 0.468 4 to 0.612 3, which increasd 30.72%. The developing trend and increasing amplitude varied greatly from one subsystem to another; however, the water resources carrying capacity index of the water resources subsystem and ecology and environment subsystem decreased significantly during 2010-2011. The proportion of reclaimed water, population density, proportion of ecological water consumption, proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, total wastewater discharge amount, COD discharge in wastewater and water resources per capita were diagnosed to be the key obstacles for the improvement of water resources carrying capacity in Yunnan Province. It is suggested that measures of industrial structure optimization, improvement of the utilization rate of water resources and further promotion of the protection of ecological environment can be carried out to improve the carrying capacity of water resources and ensure economic and social development of the study area.