珠江上游流域近55年气温变化特征分析

采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验及小波分析等方法,对珠江上游流域1954-2008年气温系列进行研究分析。结果表明:①近55年来,珠江上游流域多年平均气温呈显著上升趋势。在空间上,气温上升显著的区域主要集中在红水河、柳江、桂江、贺江、黔浔江、西江梧州以下及北江流域。年平均气温存在3、7、17和43 a左右的主周期。②从各季节气温变化看,夏、秋两季气温上升显著,冬、春两季上升不显著。各季节平均气温周期和年平均气温周期大体一致,均存在3、7、18和40 a左右的主周期。该研究结果对进一步研究珠江上游流域气候及其未来气候预测具有重要意义。

Analysis on character of temperature variation in upstream of Pearl River basin during 55years

Based on linear regression,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis methods,the temperature series from 1959 to 2008 in the upstream of Pearl River basin were researched.The results indicated that: ①during recent 55 years,the annual temperature presents a significantly upward trend.The temperature rising obviously areas focuses on Hongshui River,Liujiang River,Guijiang River,Hejiang River,Qianxunjiang River,downstream of Wuzhou and North River basin.In addition,the annual temperature exhibits 3,7,17 and 43 year periods.②As for seasonal temperature,the summer and autumn temperatures demonstrate a significantly upward trend,while there is an insignificantly upward trend in spring and winter.Generally,seasonal temperature periods are nearly as same as annual temperature,which exist more or less 3,7,18 and 40 year periods.The results will play an important significance in the climate prediction of Pearl River basin.