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融冰洪水演进的马斯京根模型
引用本文:林 瑜,吕海深,朱永华,孙铭悦,张梅洁.融冰洪水演进的马斯京根模型[J].水资源与水工程学报,2021,32(4):86-92.
作者姓名:林 瑜  吕海深  朱永华  孙铭悦  张梅洁
作者单位:(1.河海大学 水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098; 2.河海大学 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210098)
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510504);国家自然科学基金项目(41830752、42071033)
摘    要:为解决参数率定过程复杂的问题,将河段内的融冰产生的流量视为河段下断面出流的一部分,构建出适用于文开河融冰时期洪水演进的马斯京根模型,并将优化算法应用到模型参数率定的过程中。以黄河宁蒙河段为例,采用试错法、非线性规划法和智能算法中的遗传算法这3种方法对所构建的模型参数进行率定。模拟结果表明:3种方法所模拟的出流过程线均合格;整体上,非线性规划法模拟的精度最高,其洪水的确定性系数D_c为0.980,过程平均相对误差RE为4.840%;而试错法模拟的洪峰流量更为准确,且冰期模拟精度高于无冰期。本研究为融冰洪水演进的模拟提供了一种新方法。

关 键 词:洪水演进    河冰消融    马斯京根模型    文开河    度日因子法

Simulation of ice thawing flood by Muskingum routing model
Abstract:In order to simplify the complex calibration process of parameters, a modified Muskingum routing model suitable for the simulation of ice thawing flood during river ice tranquil breakup period is proposed, in which the flow generated by thawing ice in the reach is considered as a part of the outflow of the lower section of the reach. Moreover, the optimization algorithm is applied to the parameter calibration process of the model. Taking the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River as an example, the parameter K and x of the proposed model are calibrated by trial and error method, nonlinear programming method and genetic algorithm. The simulation results show that the outflow hydrograph calculated by the three methods are all qualified. Overall, the nonlinear programming method has the highest accuracy, with the determination coefficient (Dc)of the flood being 0.980 and the average relative error (RE) of the process being 4.840 %. However, the peak flow simulated by the trial and error method is more accurate. Moreover, its simulation accuracy of ice covered period is higher than that of open flow period. The proposed model provides a new approach for the study of ice thawing flood routing.
Keywords:flood routing  river ice thawing-breakup  Muskingum model    tranquil breakup  degree day factor method
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