缺资料地区产流径流时空特性分析及其关系研究——以洮河流域为例

为了解决缺资料地区的产流、径流时空特性分析问题，采用SWAT模型、多元统计分析法、相关系数法、弹性分析法等方法，研究分析缺资料地区——洮河干流分区段产流、径流的时空变化规律，揭示降雨量P、产流量Y、径流量R三者之间关系以及径流变化影响因素。结果表明：洮河流域红旗站1956-2019年径流量整体呈显著减小趋势，1987年发生突变；SWAT模型率定、验证期决定系数分别为0.78、0.79，Nash-Suttcliffe系数分别为0.78、0.77，相对误差均小于10%，模拟效果令人满意；河道径流中游占比最大(50.71%)，其次为上游(37.21%)，下游占比最小(12.08%)，中游是径流量的主要来源；产流量由上游到下游呈减少变化，依次为214.18、179.43、81.16 mm；代桑曲子流域产流量最大，岔河、东峪沟最小；相关性排序为P与Y、Y与R、P与R，且相关性由上游到下游逐渐减弱；气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为20%和80%，人类活动是主要因素。研究成果有利于揭示洮河流域各区段产水径流变化及影响机理，同时为缺资料地区产流径流时空分析提供理论支撑。

Spatio-temporal characteristics of water yield and runoff and their relationship in regions with scarce data: A case study of Taohe River Basin

In order to solve the problem of analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of water yield and runoff in the absence of data, various methods, including SWAT model, multivariate statistical analysis, correlation coefficient method, and elastic analysis method, were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of water yield and runoff of each section in the Taohe River Basin, so as to reveal the relationship among precipitation (P), water yield (Y) and runoff (R), and the influencing factors of runoff change in regions with scarce data. The results showed that the runoff of Hongqi Station in theTaohe River Basin decreased significantly overall from 1956 to 2019, and an abrupt change occurred in 1987. The determination coefficients of SWAT model were 0.78 and 0.79, and Nash-Suttcliffe coefficients were 0.78 and 0.77 in the period of validation and calibration, respectively, and all the relative errors were less than 10%, so the simulation results were satisfactory. The middle reaches accounted for the largest proportion of runoff (50.71%), followed by the upper reaches (37.21%) and the lower reaches (12.08%), therefore, the middle reaches were the main source of the runoff. The water yield decreased from the upstream to the downstream, which was 214.18, 179.43 and 81.16 mm, respectively. The water yield in the Daisang River Basin was the largest, whereas that in the Chahe River and Dongyugou River were the smallest. The correlation order was P-Y>Y-R>P-R, and the correlation gradually decreased from the upstream to the downstream. The impacts of climate change and human activities were 20% and 80%, respectively, and human activities were the main influencing factor. The research results are helpful for the study of runoff variation and its influencing mechanism in each section of the Taohe River Basin, and provide theoretical support for spatio-temporal analysis of runoff in regions with scarce data.