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淮河流域主汛期极端降水时空特征变异分析
引用本文:郑永路,钟平安,万新宇,杨明明.淮河流域主汛期极端降水时空特征变异分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012(5):13-17,31.
作者姓名:郑永路  钟平安  万新宇  杨明明
作者单位:1. 河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098
2. 河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,南京210098
基金项目:全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179044)
摘    要:以淮河水系16个片区1953年-2007年逐月降水资料为基础,选取超门限峰值序列(POT),引进广义帕雷托分布(GPD),借助L-矩估计方法,分析淮河水系主汛期年极端降雨事件的空间变化。并以淮河干流左右岸的代表性支流为研究对象,通过统计极端降水的频次和强度,结合帕雷托参数的空间变化,分析了淮河汛期极端降水的演变规律。研究发现:①不同门限值下的逐月降水量所拟合的降水极值概率分布符合广义帕雷托分布;②淮河的极端降水频次和强度右岸普遍大于左岸,与帕雷托分布形状参数和尺度参数空间分布一致性较好;③不同量级的极端降水的时空变化规律有较大差别。研究结论对淮河流域的洪涝灾害的预警和防治有一定的参考价值。

关 键 词:淮河  汛期  极端降水量  广义帕雷托分布  时空变化

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin during the Main Flood Season
ZHENG Yong-lu,ZHONG Ping-an,WAN Xin-yu,YANG Ming-ming.Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin during the Main Flood Season[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2012(5):13-17,31.
Authors:ZHENG Yong-lu  ZHONG Ping-an  WAN Xin-yu  YANG Ming-ming
Affiliation:a(Hohai University,a.College of Hydrology and Water Resources;b.National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety,Nanjing 210098,China)
Abstract:The spatial variation of the extreme precipitation events at the two river banks of the typical tributaries of the main channel of the Huaihe River during the main flood season was analyzed based on the monthly precipitation data at 16 sub-areas in the Huaihe river basin from 1953 to 2007.The Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD) was introduced,and the GPD parameters were calibrated using the L-Moment.The Peak over threshold series(POT) was selected to characterize the extreme distribution.The spatial variation of extreme precipitation was evaluated by its frequency and intensity combining with the spatial variation of the GPD parameters.The results showed that(1) the probability distribution of the monthly extreme precipitation accords with GPD under different threshold values;(2) The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation on the right river bank are higher than those on the left river bank,which is consistent with the spatial variation of the shape and scale parameters in GDP;and(3) the spatial and temporal variations of extreme precipitation at different quantity levels differ significantly.The results can provide instructive significance for the early-warning of flood disaster and flood prevention and control in the Huaihe river basin.
Keywords:Huaihe River  flood season  extreme precipitation  Generalized Pareto Distribution  spatial and temporal variation
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