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| 引汉济渭工程水源区与受水区丰枯遭遇分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 王伟,钟永华,雷晓辉,蒋云钟,张峰,张大伟.引汉济渭工程水源区与受水区丰枯遭遇分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012(5):23-26,36. |
| 作者姓名： | 王伟 钟永华 雷晓辉 蒋云钟 张峰 张大伟 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 东华大学 环境科学与工程学院,上海201620 2. 中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 3. 北京市密云水库管理处,北京101512 |
| 基金项目： | 水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07423-001-2);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200901031;201001024;201101026;201101024) |
| 摘 要： | 对于引汉济渭工程来说,其水源区和受水区的丰枯遭遇对工程调度方案的制定有重要影响。利用Copula函数法和统计法对水源区与受水区的降水丰枯遭遇进行统计,为制定调度方案提供参考依据。统计结果的对比分析显示,Copula函数法和统计方法统计结果基本一致,水源区和受水区丰枯组合中对调水有利的概率均大于70%,但在样本序列较短时统计法存在局限性,Copula函数法可以弥补统计方法的不足。计算结果还表明,工程可以保证调水效益的正常发挥。 |
| 关 键 词： | 丰枯遭遇 降水 水源区 受水区 |
Synchronous-asynchronous Encounter Probability of Rich-poor Precipitation between Water Source Area and Water Receiving Area of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Water Transfer Project |
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| WANG Wei,ZHONG Yong-hua,LEI Xiao-hui,JIANG Yun-zhong,ZHANG Feng,ZHANG Da-wei.Synchronous-asynchronous Encounter Probability of Rich-poor Precipitation between Water Source Area and Water Receiving Area of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Water Transfer Project[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2012(5):23-26,36. | |
| Authors: | WANG Wei ZHONG Yong-hua LEI Xiao-hui JIANG Yun-zhong ZHANG Feng ZHANG Da-wei |
| Affiliation: | 1,2(1.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Donghua University,Shanghai 201620,China; 2.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China; 3.Beijing Miyun Reservoir Management Office,Beijing 101512,China) |
| Abstract: | In the view of the effects of encountering of rich-poor precipitation between the water source area and water receiving area on the establishment of regulation scheme,the Copula function theory and statistical method were applied to calculate the synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation between the water source area and water receiving area,which can provide reference for the regulation scheme.The synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability obtained from the Copula function theory was similar to that determined by the statistical method,which showed that the advantage probabilities of the combination of rich and poor precipitation between the water source area and water receiving area to water transfer were all higher than 70% for both methods.However,the statistical method had limitations for the short sample sequences,whereas the copula function theory can cover the deficiency of the statistical method.The results showed that the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Water Transfer Project can ensure the efficiency of water transfer. |
| Keywords: | Synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability precipitation water source area water receiving area |
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