气候变化对大海波水库来水及用水影响

为分析在未来气候变化情景下大海波水库来水及用水的变化情况,选取楚雄站蒸发(1953年-2001年)、降水(1953年-2009年)、气温等气象资料,以及大海波水库(1990年-2009年)来水量资料,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall及Spearman趋势检测法对楚雄站点的气象要素进行趋势检测,并计算了水库下游参考作物需水量。结果表明:大海波水库的来水量呈减少趋势,下游参考作物需水量呈下降趋势;在未来气候情景下,楚雄年平均气温将升高2.56℃,年降水变化率为5.9%,气温升高时,下游参考作物需水量增加,对大海波水库的供水带来一定的不利影响。

Effects of Climate Change on Inflow and Water Consumption in Dahaibo Reservoir

In order to analyze the variations of inflows and water consumption under future climate change scenarios in the Dahaibo reservoir,the evaporation data from 1953 to 2001,the precipitation and temperature data from 1953 to 2009 at the Chuxiong station and the inflow data to the Dahaibo reservoir from 1990 to 2009 were selected and analyzed using the methods of linear regression,Mann-Kendall and Spearman trend analysis.The crop water requirement downstream of the reservoir was calculated as a reference.The results showed that the inflow to the reservoir tends to decline as well as the crop water requirement downstream of the reservoir.Under the future climate scenarios,the average temperature in Chuxiong would rise by 2.56 ℃ and the annual variation rate of precipitation is 5.9%.Due to the rising of temperature,the climate change can cause an increase of the crop water requirement downstream and bring some adverse impacts to the water supply in the Dahaibo reservoir.