洣水流域无资料地区降雨径流模拟应用研究

应用区域化流量历时曲线模拟无资料地区径流过程时,模拟精度常受到有资料地区径流资料长短、回归因素及推求的流量历时曲线片段长短等因素的影响。采用中周期连续时段径流资料,通过流量历时分位数回归法推求无资料地区流量历时曲线,并以此率定水文模型参数,进而实现洣水流域无资料地区降雨径流过程模拟。模拟结果表明:综合考虑多种回归因素有利于提高流量历时曲线精度;采用流量历时曲线片段也可实现模型参数率定,且随着片段延长,率定精度也相应增加;在流量历时曲线高、中、低水三类片段中,采用中水片段率定的精度相对高于仅用高水或低水片段,因此率定过程中应尽可能保留流量历时曲线中水部分片段。

Application research of rainfal l2runoff simulation for ungauged region in the Mishui Basin

The precision of the application of r egio na l flow dur atio n curv e to simulate the flow hy dr og raph in t he ungaug ed re2 g io ns is usually influenced by the leng th of r unoff data in the gaug ed r eg io ns, the r egr ession factor s, and the segment leng th of calculated flow dur ation curve. In this paper , based on the co ntinuo us runoff data in the middle cycle, the f low dur ation quantile reg ression method w as used to deriv e the f low dur ation curv es in the ung auged reg ions. The parameters o f hydro lo gical model wer e calibrated, and the r ainf all2runo ff simulatio n fo r the ung auged reg ions in the M ishui Basin w as per formed. The simulatio n results showed that the compr ehensive consideration of the multiple r egr ession factor s can impr ove t he pr ecision of f low dur a2 tion cur ve; the flow durat ion curv e segment can be used to calibr ate the model par amet ers, and the calibr ation accuracy is in2 cr eased w ith the segment ex tensio n; and among the t hr ee segments with hig h, middle, and low w ater o f the flow dur ation cur ve, the calibratio n accuracy using t he middle w ater segment is relativ ely hig her than that using the hig h w ater or low w ater seg2 ment, so the middle w ater segment in the flow duratio n curv e is bett er retained dur ing the calibr ation pro cess.