近57来和丰县气温和降水量的趋势性及突变特征分析

对和丰县1954年-2010年近57年的年均气温以及降水量的资料,在进行距平分析和M-K非参数统计检验的基础上,运用M-K突变检测法和Pettitt突变检测法分别计算和分析了年均气温和降水量的突变特征。结果显示:1988年-2010年,有20年的气温距平值大于0,说明气温自1988年起呈现显著增加趋势,M-K趋势性检验结果也证明了这一点;突变检测未发现气温突变年份。年降水量总体呈现上升的趋势,最小值出现在1977年,最大值出现在2007年,总体变化趋势不显著,丰枯降水年交错分布;突变检测确定2007年为降水量突变年份。

Tendency and Mutation Analysis of Annual Temperature and Precipitation of Hefeng County in Recent 57 Years

Based on the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and cumulative departure curve analysis on the annual temperature and precipitation of Hefeng County from 1954 to 2010, the mutation characteristics of annual temperature and precipitation were detected using the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt mutation tests. The results showed that the cumulative departure of temperature of 20 years is positive from 1988 to 2010, which indicated that the temperature has a significantly increasing trend from 1988 and it is verified by the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. The mutation time of temperature was not detected. Annual precipitation had a gradually increasing trend with the lowest precipitation occurring in 1977 and the highest in 2007, but the trend was not significant and the occurrence of dry and wet years had an interlaced distribution. The mutation time of precipitation was detected as 2007.