基于极差分析法的引水隧洞施工工期多因素灵敏度分析

本文采用极差分析法,分两个阶段对引水隧洞钻爆法施工工期进行了多因素灵敏度分析:第一阶段进行考虑地质因素的对工序工期对总工期影响,判断地质因素对总工期的影响程度,确定对总工期影响较大的关键施工工序;第二阶段进行施工参数对工序工期影响的灵敏度分析,确定对工序工期影响较大的关键施工参数。将该方法应用于某引水隧洞钻爆法施工工程,结果表明:基于极差分析法的多因素灵敏度分析可以有效识别对工期影响显著的施工工序与施工参数,为施工组织计划的合理安排提供科学依据。

Range analysis-based multi-parameters sensitivity analysis on construction period of diversion tunnel

Based on the method of range analysis， a multi-parameters sensitivity analysis is made on the period of drilling and blasting construction of diversion tunnel in two phases; i.e. at the first phase， the impacts from the geological factors on both the durations of construction processes and the total construction period are considered for judging the degree of the geological impacts on the total construction period and then determining the key construction processes those have larger impacts on the total construction period; at the second phase， the sensitivities of the impacts from the construction parameters on the durations of the construction processes are analyzed for determining the key construction parameters those have larger impacts on the durations of the construction processes. This method is applied to a drilling and blasting construction of a diversion tunnel and the result shows that the construction processes and parameters those have significant impacts on the construction period can be effectively identified by the multi-parameters sensitivity analysis based on the method of range analysis.