基于LMDI和STIRPAT模型的区域用水影响因素定量分析研究

区域用水影响因素分析对落实最严格水资源管理制度、实现节水型社会建设具有重要意义。为定量表征区域用水变化和影响因素之间的关系,通过LMDI因素分解识别人口规模、经济发展水平、节水技术水平对用水变化的影响程度,采用STIRPAT模型解析用水总量对人口规模、经济发展水平、节水技术水平变化的变动响应关系,以榆林市2000—2017年用水及影响因素变化为例开展了实证研究。结果显示:人口规模和经济发展水平对用水增长起到正向促进作用,节水技术水平起到负向抑制作用。人口规模、经济发展水平、节水技术水平效应依次为8 163.124万m~3、144 238.924万m~3、-126 161.049万m~3;人口规模、经济发展水平、节水技术水平每变化1%,用水将分别变化1.208%、0.061%和0.037%;经济发展水平和节水技术水平是用水变化的主要影响因素,但用水对人口规模变化敏感程度最高。最后,结合榆林市水资源特点提出针对性措施和建议,以期为榆林市水资源规划与管理提供参考。

LMDI and STIRPAT model-based quantitative analysis and study on factors of impacts on regional water-use

The analysis of the impact factors of regional water use is great significance to the implementation of the strictest water resources management system and the construction of the water-saving society． In order to quantitatively characterize the relationship between the change of regional water-use and the impacting factor，the degrees of the impacts from the population scale，the economic development level and the water-saving technical level on the change of water-use are identified through the LMDI ( Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index ) factor decomposition，while the variation response relationship between the total water consumption and the changes of the population scale，the economic development level and the water-saving technical level is analyzed with the STIRPAT model，and then the changes of the annual water-use and the impacting factors from 2000 to 2017 of Yulin City are taken as the study cases for making the empirical study． The study results show that both the population scale and the economic development play the positive promotion roles to increase water-use，while the water-saving technical level plays a negative restrain effect． The effects from the population scale，the economic development level and the water-saving technical level are 81. 631 24 million m3 ，1 442. 389 24 million m3 and －1 261. 610 49 million m3 respectively in turn，while the water-use is to be changed by 1. 208%，0. 061% and 0. 037% respectively for the every changes of 1% of the population scale，the economic development level and the water-saving technical level，in which the economic development and the water-saving technical level are the main factors of the impacts on the change of water-use，but the water-use is the most sensitive to the change of the population scale． Finally，some targetable measures and suggestions are proposed herein in combination with the characteristics of the water resource in Yuli City，so as to provide some references for the water resources planning and management in Yulin City．