基于三次平衡理论的黄河流域水资源 承载能力分析

在讨论水资源承载能力相关概念的基础上，依据三次平衡思想，搭建以水资源承载能力计算模型为核心的水资源承载能力分析平台。对黄河流域2005、2020和2030年水资源承载能力进行分析，得出结论为：（1）立足现有供水模式，流域水资源承载能力十分有限；（2）通过深度挖潜，本地流域水资源对GDP的承载能力较现状开发利用模式可提升近20%；（3）外流域调水可有效增加流域水资源承载能力。研究表明通过深度挖潜和外流调水能显著增加黄河流域水资源承载能力。

Triple-balance theory based analysis on water resources carrying capacity of Yellow River Basin

On the basis of the discussion on the relevant conception of the water resources carrying capacity，a water resources carrying capacity analysis platform with the core of the water resources carrying capacity computation model is established in accordance with the triple balance theory，and then the water resources carrying capacities of the Yellow River Basin in the years of 2005，2020 and 2030 are respectively analyzed herein. It is concluded that：(1)the water resources carrying capacity of the basin is quite limited，if based on the existing water supply mode; (2)through deeply tapping into the potential concerned，the local carrying capacity of the basin for the GDP can raise about 20%，if compared with the existing development and utilization mode therein; (3)the water resources carrying capacity can be effectively enhanced，if diverting water from the outside of the basin. The study shows that the water resources carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin can be significantly enhanced through deeply tapping into the potential and diverting water from the outside of the basin.