黄河宁蒙河段冰情预报决策支持系统的设计与开发

以黄河宁蒙河段为例，在对河段历史冰情变化规律及其影响因素分析的基础上，建立冰情预报数据库，进行数据挖掘，并以地理信息系统（GIS）为平台，以水文学流量演算、热力学、冰水力学等原理为基础，结合相关经验预报模型，建立用实测资料进行参数率定的冰情预报概念性数学模型和人工神经网络模型，初步探讨了集信息查询、模型参数率定、气温预报、冰情预报等功能为一体的冰情预报决策支持系统的设计与开发。

Design and development of decision support system for ice regime forecast of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River

Taking Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River as a study case, a ice regime forecast data warehouse is established for the datamining concerned on the basis of the analysis on the ice regime changing law and its influencing factor of the reach, and then the conceptual mathematic model and Artificial Neural Network Model for the parameter calibration of ice regime forecast are built up with GIS in combination of the relevant empirical forecast models based on the principles of the hydrological flow muting, thermodynamics and ice hydraulics etc. , with which the design and development of the decision support system for the ice regime forecast with the integrated functions of information inquiry, model parameter calibration, temperature forecast and ice regime forecast are preliminarily discussed.