基于模糊层次分析法的农村水库大坝安全二级模糊综合评价

基于《水库大坝安全评价导则》构建了农村地区水库大坝安全二级模糊综合评价体系,选取17个一级影响因素、5个二级影响因素作为评价指标。采用模糊层次分析法计算各指标一级权重和二级权重。该方法充分地体现了因素相对重要性比较的模糊性,有效地解决了传统的层次分析法的不足,明确了隶属函数的意义,对正态分布隶属函数进行修正,使隶属函数更加符合实际情况。采用多位专家评分的办法给出定性指标的量化值,以便得出单因素的隶属度使得因素隶属度更加合理和可信。最后,分别进行一级模糊综合评价和二级模糊综合评价。运用该方法对某农村地区水库大坝安全性进行评价,其结果合理,可供工程实践参考和借鉴。

Fuzzy AHP-based two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on safety of reservoir dam in rural area

A two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation system is constructed based on the guidelines on dam safety evaluation， and then 17 first-level impacting factors and 5 second-level impacting factors are selected as the evaluation indexes. All the first-level weight vectors and second-level weight vectors are calculated with Fuzzy AHP ( fuzzy analytical hierarchy process) . The method fully reflects the fuzziness of the comparison among the relative importances of the factors，and then effectively solves the defects of the conventional AHP，defines the significance of the membership function，revises the normal distribution membership function and makes the membership function more coincided with the actual situation. The quantified value of the qualitative index is given out by means of the method of rating with several experts，so as to obtain the degree of the membership of a single factor and then make the degree of the membership more reasonable and reliable. At last，both the first-level and the second-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluations are carried out. The method is applied to the evaluation of the safety of a reservoir dam in rural area，of which the result is reasonable，thus can provide reference for the engineering practice concerned.