气候变但对石羊河流域水资源影响分析

本文研究了石羊河流域气候变化对水资源和干旱的影响，旨在为将来的水资源配置提供了决策依据。研究采用了Mann-Kendall秋序检测方法对石羊河流域气候变化趋势进行了分析。在变化趋势的分析中，同时引入一种适合非线性和非平稳时间序列突变检测的新方法一B-G分割算法来检测其趋势的突变性。研究结果表明:石羊河流域上游降水存在突变;而整个流域的气温均存在突变;上游和中游潜在蒸发量(PET )均存在突变;而整个流域的有效降雨不存在突变。特别是进入20世纪90年代后期以后，年平均温度增加幅度更为明显，潜在蒸发量(PET )也在增加，而降雨增加却不明显。

Analysis on impact from climate change on water resources of Shiyanghe River Basin

The impact from the climate change on the water resources and drought of Shiyanghe River Basin is studied herein,so as to provide a basis for the decision-making on the future allocation of the water resources therein.In the study,the Mann-Kendall ranking detection method is used to analyze the trend of the climate change within Shiyang River Basin.Simultaneously,a new method adaptable to detect the abrupt change of nonlinear and non-stationary time series,i.e.Bernaola-Galavan(B-G) segmentation algorithm is also adopted to predict the characteristics of the trend of abrupt change concerned.The study result shows that the abrupt change of precipitation is there in the upper area of the basin;the abrupt change of the temperature is there all over the basin and the abrupt change of the potential evapotranspiration(PET) is also there in the upper-midstream area therein,while there is no abrupt change of the effective rainfall within the whole basin.Especially since the late 1990s,the annual magnitude of temperature increase is to be more obvious along with the increase of the potential evapotranspiration(PET) on a certain scale,whereas the increase of rainfall is not so significant as well.