苏南丘陵地区水-社会经济-生态耦合系统仿真模拟研究

基于系统科学、可持续发展思想的指导，综合运用系统动力学、运筹学、经济学、水文学等理论和方法，对地处苏南丘陵地区的句容市的水—社会经济—生态耦合系统进行了系统概化和仿真分析研究，建立了苏南丘陵地区水资源系统与社会经济及生态环境系统相互作用的水—社会经济—生态耦合系统仿真模拟的系统动力学模型。通过对多种水资源调控策略的仿真结果的分析，得到了句容市水资源调控的最优策略，提出了句容市水资源调控战略的重点在于加大各部门节水力度、提高用水效率以及加大污水处理力度，改善水生态环境，从而为实现区域水—社会经济—生态耦合系统的可持续发展提供科学的决策依据。

Simulation on water-socioeconomy-ecology integrated system of hilly area of Southern Jiangsu Province

Based on the guidance of systems science and the sustainable development concept, the generalization and simulation analysis on the water-socioeconomy-ecology system of Jurong City in the hilly area of the Southern Jiangsu Province are made by using the theories and methods of systematic dynamics, operational research, economics and hydrology, and then the simulated model of systematic dynamics for the interactional water-socioeconomy-ecology integrated system of the water resources, socioeconomy and eco-environment system therein is established as well. Through the analysis on the results from the simulations made on several control strategies for water resources, the optimum water resources control strategy for the city is obtained, from which the key points of the strategy such as strengthening water-savlng, enhancing water-uslng efficiency and sewage treatment, improving water eco-environment etc. are put forward, so as to provide scientific decision-making basis for sustainable development of the regional water-socioeconomy-ecology integrated system concerned.