城市内涝灾害应急救援兵棋推演研究

针对近年来城市内涝灾害给居民、交通及城市基础设施带来的巨大影响,以低成本发现高风险事件和应急预案漏洞为目标,通过兵棋推演模拟城市内涝灾害应急救援过程。依据兵棋推演与灾害理论,结合GIS技术、决策树等方法,综合建立了动态兵棋棋子模型、暴雨规则、可视化地图及兵棋推演模型,实现了城市内涝灾害应急救援兵棋推演。结果表明:在设定的5年一遇暴雨情景及18个推演回合下,两个应急救援行动方案中,我方行动1虽能完成内涝灾害应急救援,但造成损失的概率非常高;我方行动2能够完成内涝灾害应急救援,且造成损失的概率较小。将兵棋推演方法引入到城市内涝灾害应急救援中,可准确的推演应急预案的可行性,研究成果对提高有关应急部门灵活处理应急事件的指挥能力、管理能力与决策能力具有重要意义。

Study on war-game simulation on emergency rescue of urban waterlogging disaster

Aiming at the huge impact from urban waterlogging disaster on resident，traffic and urban infrastructure，while taking detection of high risk event and the vulnerability of emergency scheme as the target，the process of the emergency rescue for the urban waterlogging disaster is simulated by means of war-game simulation. Based on the war-game simulation and the relevant disaster theory，the dynamic war-game chess piece model，rainstorm rule，visualized map and war-game simulation model are comprehensively established in combination with the methods of GIS technique，decision tree，etc. ，and then the war-game simulation of the emergency rescue for the urban waterlogging disaster is realized. The result shows that within two emergency rescue action schemes，although the action 1 of our side is able to complete the emergency rescue for the waterlogging disaster，the probability of the loss caused therein is very high，while the action 2 of our side can fulfill the emergency rescue for the waterlogging disaster with a smaller probability of the loss caused thereinunder the given scenario of the rainstorm with the return-period of 5 years with18 simulating rounds. Introducing the method of the war-game simulation into the emergency rescue for urban watelogging disaster can accurately simulate the feasibility of the emergency scheme，for which the study result has an important significance for enhancing the commandcapability，management capability and decision capability of the relevant emergency sectors to flexibly deal with the emergency event concerned.