气候变化影响下的赣江流域水资源变化趋势与幅度分析

利用全球气候模式输出结果,经统计降尺度模型降解后得到流域尺度的降水和气温要素,根据实测资料建立气温—蒸发回归关系以及新安江水文模型,使用耦合模拟和MK趋势分析评估未来气候变化情景下赣江流域水资源量的变化趋势和幅度。研究结果表明:未来不同排放情景下的年降水量、年蒸发量和年径流量等水文气候要素变化趋势以显著增加为主。未来年降水量、年蒸发量和年径流量的多年平均值相对基准期有较小幅度增加,最大增幅为年径流量的13.81%。降水、蒸发和径流的年内变化有明显的季节性特征,汛期径流增加、非汛期径流减少的不均匀情况加剧,在一定程度上可能增加赣江流域未来的防洪压力和枯水期供水压力。

Analysis on variation trend and amplitude of water resources in Ganjiang River Basin under impact of climate change

With the output result of global climate model，the essential factors of river basin scale precipitation and temperature are obtained through downscaling the relevant statistical downscaling scale-model. A temperature-evaporation regression relationship and Xinanjiang hydrological model are established according to the measured data，and then the variation trend and amplitude of the water resources in Ganjiang River Basin under the future climate changing scenarios is estimated and analyzed with coupling simulation and MK trend. The study result shows that the changing trends of the meteorological and hydrological factors， such as annual precipitation，annual evaporation，annual runoff，etc. ，under different future emission scenarios are mainly significantly increased. The multi-year mean values of the annual precipitation，annual evaporation and annual runoff in the future are to be increased to a small extent with the maximum increasing amplitude of 13. 81% of the annual runoff if compared with those of the relative reference period. The intra-annual variations of precipitation，evaporation and runoff have obvious seasonal characteristics，while the non-uniforms of the increase of runoff during flood period and decrease of runoff during non-flood season are aggravated，which are possibly to increase both the pressures from the flood control and the water supply during dry season in future to a certain extent.