洪泽湖与骆马湖水资源连通分析与优化调度耦合模型研究

通过对洪泽湖与骆马湖水资源综合分析,发现两湖水系存在丰枯不同步的情况,且两湖连通河道满足水资源联调需求。本文采用大系统分解协调理论与线性规划优化模型原理,研究建立了洪泽湖与骆马湖水资源优化调度耦合模型,并采用逆时序倒推法制定了两湖水资源调度控制线,为两湖水系水资源耦合模型计算提供依据。根据两湖长序列来水资料和用户2020规划水平年需水预测,进行两湖水资源联合优化调度计算。研究成果为两湖水系水资源调度预案编制提供了依据,进一步优化了两湖水资源配置,促进洪水资源化利用,有助于缓解两湖地区水资源供需矛盾,保障区域经济协调发展,具有重要的理论和现实意义。

Analysis on interconnection between water resources of Hongze Lake and Luoma Lake and study on coupled model for its optimal regulation

Through a comprehensive analysis made on the water resources of both Hongze Lake and Luoma Lake，it is found out that the wet-dry processes of both the water systems of the lakes are not synchronous，and moreover，if the river channels of both the lakes are interconnected，the demand of the joint regulation of the water resources therein can be met. Based on the theory of large-scale system decomposition-coordination and the principle of linear programming optimal model，the coupled model for the optimal regulation of the water resources of Hongze Lake and Luoma Lake is studied and then established herein. Furthermore，the water resources regulation control line is determined with the back sequence reverse inference method，so as to provide a basis for the calculation of the coupled model for the water resources of the water systems of both the lakes. In accordance with the long sequence incoming water data and the prediction on the water demands from the users for the planning level year of 2020，the calculation of the optimal joint regulation of water resources is carried out. The study achievement lays a foundation for making the water resources regulation pre-schemes of both the water systems of lakes，which further optimizes the water resources allocations of them，promotes the resourcized utilization of flood and is helpful to alleviate the contradiction between the supply and demand of the water resources within the regions of both the lakes as well，thus has important theoretic and realistic significance for guaranteeing the coordinated development of the regional economy concerned.